Avalon is a Ukrainian developer since 2014, specializing in the creation of modern residential complexes in Lviv. During this time, it has grown from small projects to large-scale ones that have received international recognition. The company works according to the philosophy "Built of challenges". This idea reflects not only the obligations to residents, but also the company's desire to constantly develop, improve, and create full-fledged ecosystems that not only immerse you in space, but are also filled with meaning and comfort.

As part of the curriculum of the Kyiv School of Development, two lectures were held by Avalon representatives - CEO Roman Davymuka (Vision, strategy and organizational structure of the development company) and Sales and Marketing Director Marta Gerus (Systemic approach to sales in development: Avalon experience).

In their column for KSD, they shared how to build a vision and work effectively in the field of development in the face of geopolitical and economic instability, demographic challenges and military risks.

Strategic planning and sustainable development are the cornerstones of the development business. In the global business environment, it is the basis for forming forecasts, assessing one’s own capabilities and potential demand, and finding tools within the company, as well as at the regional and state levels. Now, when Ukraine lives in conditions of constant turbulence and uncertainty, local developers are faced with challenges that cannot be foreseen in any strategy.

Sustainable development with a Ukrainian character

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has nullified all previous plans and put developers in conditions where decisions must be made here and now, applying unprecedented flexibility and taking into account various scenarios of events with constant variables. But it was this experience that allowed the company to survive, maintain its reputation and, ultimately, create approaches to work and development that are not described in any textbooks on strategic planning.

The peculiarity of real estate development is that projects have a long preparation cycle before entering the market. The process of preliminary research, project preparation, urban planning documentation, and coordination with all authorities lasts from three to five years. Accordingly, our planning horizon should be within these time frames. But in the current conditions, this is possible only if we immediately foresee static points and possible ramifications. For example, if we have strategically planned the launch of a new project for 2026, but we do not yet have any obligations to investors, such a plan falls into the category of ramifications and may be adjusted if certain scenarios occur. If the project is launched and there are already sales for it, this is a static point under which resources have been accumulated. In turbulent market conditions, the final decision on variables is made the day before.

At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, a significant reduction in administrative costs was a safeguard against a negative scenario. Then we did not know whether we would have at least one more sale, but we understood that the projects needed to be completed. Therefore, we could not afford to “eat up” money. We had to make decisions on the edge. And this is primarily about flexibility in processes and openness to manual management during a crisis. Under certain conditions, sales may stagnate or stop altogether. And we are ready to tactically navigate such scenarios without losing our reputation and sustainability in the long term.

Lack of statistics and internal tools

One of the significant problems in planning is that the development market is one of the most underserved in terms of real statistics. There is no data on how much housing is currently being built, how much is being sold, and how much is planned to enter the market. There are a lot of gray areas that do not allow us to draw up an objective picture for forecasting. The only available figures are the number of housing units being put into operation. Therefore, we rely on our own statistics and expertise. Based on this, we understand how to balance the supply portfolio so as not to have an overload in any class and maintain a proportion in accordance with the needs of the market.

Also, like all players in the development market, we depend on related industries, the situation in the building materials market, imports, logistics, and the availability of people at contractors. All these factors cannot be comprehensively taken into account, so the scenarios are generalized based on current capabilities.

Under current conditions, we are doing long-term planning with regular updates. The scenario that in 5 years everything will be the same as now is unrealistic, besides, this is the base scenario from which we must proceed. And from this, more optimistic and pessimistic ramifications are formed.

If we consider a positive scenario, then we assume that within five years a new round of development of the city will occur, many industries that are currently on pause will return, such as tourism, and the development of industry with the involvement of foreign capital will begin. Accordingly, the demand for premium and business housing will grow. And by this point we must be ready.

Marketing analysis and realistic expectations

At the level of the commercial department, tools for analyzing our clients' requests and moods help, identifying stable and already formed patterns of behavior during the war. Currently, these patterns, criteria for choosing and making decisions are more stable within six months. As bitter as it may sound, we are all used to living in wars and planning our lives and activities in these conditions. If in 2022 they changed chaotically even within a month, in 2023 massive shelling could cause a stupor for several weeks, now reactive lulls last for several days. And then everyone returns to solving their issues.

The factors that shape the client's requests and moods and influence the developers' plans are actually obvious:

The situation within the country, military risks, forecasts and force majeure
Geopolitical situation
General market trends
Norms and trends set by the developers themselves.
Risk factors for the market at the moment (except for military ones) may be a significant increase in supply, which, against the background of a difficult economic and demographic situation, may create a certain “bubble”. And here it is very important for the developers themselves to take off their rose-colored glasses and assess trends realistically, because it is they who are taking risks in this situation.

As for the vision of the organization as such, it is closely related to how the city will develop, in particular from the point of view of residential, commercial and public development. We, as a developer, are ready to synchronize with the processes taking place in the city. I really believe that there will be positive developments and we will be able to direct part of our portfolio to commercial and hotel real estate. Our strategic goal is not quantitative, but qualitative. To enter new segments and make the city better in terms of developing landmark projects, creating ecosystems, changing selection criteria and such a value proposition that will resonate with people and form a new quality of life in all segments.

Value is not reduced to price" or "Value is not reduced to price. The path of awareness from apartment to space

The realities of recent years are forcing us to change strategies, habits and the very approach to the real estate market. This is especially noticeable in development: what worked in 2015–2017 is no longer relevant today. That is why we at Avalon have long gone beyond the classical thinking about real estate as "selling housing". For us, development is the creation of living ecosystems, and this is where any of our projects begins.

After 2014, interest in real estate only grew. Back then, it was enough to have a plot of land, create a housing and apartment complex and start selling. People actively invested in housing - not only for themselves, but also to preserve capital. Demand was high, and selling was easy.

Today, everything is different. The buyer has changed. The realities of the country have changed. War, economic turbulence, new demands of people - this requires a deep reassessment of approaches.

We don’t launch projects with the thought: “Okay, we have permission, we can sell.” We have a number of ready-made projects that could technically be launched today. But we are not in a hurry. Because it is important to understand – is this a product that will be truly valuable to the audience? Does it meet the needs of the market, or does it compete with existing offers even within our own company?

All residential complexes have both objective characteristics (location, area, number of apartments) and subjective ones – those that depend on the feelings and needs of potential buyers. We are trying to understand which audience will consider this residential complex their own. What triggers will work? Who are these people? What inspires them?

It is important not only to compete with the market, but also to be able to compete with yourself. When a company has several similar projects in its portfolio that are aimed at a similar audience, we must carefully plan their launch. Otherwise, we risk that marketing will bring the client, but he will get lost among similar options. And we will “eat” ourselves.

Sometimes we consciously take this risk, sometimes we avoid it. It all depends on the situation. But the main thing is to understand that the possibility of launching a project does not mean that it is advisable to launch it.

This requires deep analytics. We regularly conduct research on our audience, looking for patterns that allow us to create personalized offers. A marketing strategy cannot be universal, but must reflect the needs of specific people.

One of the biggest transformations in the market is the realization that value is not reduced to price. People are not looking for a cheap apartment, but a meaningful space. In modern development, a value proposition is created taking into account dozens of factors: from architecture and landscaping to an emotional connection with the brand. And this is exactly what we at Avalon lay down at the start of the project - long before the first sales.